Kornelius Raeth 1 Nicole Ludwig 1 2 Abstractscoring rules distribute the training gradient in proportion to Sample-based generative models are increasingly data density, with no awareness of the decision maker's cost structure. The model's limited capacity is allocated globused for probabilistic forecasting in high-stakes ally, leaving decision-critical regions of the output space decision settings, yet their training objectives are potentially underserved. These models are commonly trained with strictly proper Given a forecast, a decision maker with cost function c(a,y), scoring rules, such as the energy score, which al-of action aand outcome y, selects the action that minimises locate their training signal in proportion to dataexpected cost under the forecast distribution; a point forecast density, with no awareness of where forecast eris insufficient to evaluate this expectation. A good forecast rors are most costly for downstream decisions. Crucially, the energy score objective with a differentiable deci-observed cost of the optimal action is itself a proper scoring sion loss that directly penalises the cost incurredrule (Hartline et al., 2025; Kleinberg et al., 2023), placing by acting on the model's forecast. This combinedit in the same family as the energy score which licenses loss is theoretically grounded, as the decision losstheir combination as a theoretically well-founded training is itself a proper scoring rule. Introduction score acts as that anchor, preventing the model from collapsing outside cost-sensitive regions. Our method is theo-tion based on a temperature forecast, balancing asset loss against the cost of intervention. In the weather domain, retically grounded and leads to better downstream decisions state-of-the-art forecasting systems (Lang et al., 2024; Pricewhile retaining full probabilistic forecasts, as validated on et al., 2023) are trained with strictly proper scoring rulessynthetic and real-world forecasting tasks. A gradient analysis showing which regions benefitscore reduces to the continuous ranked probability score from the decision loss and why, based on the cost (CRPS), widely used in meteorological forecast verificafunction structure. Both model classes introduced above are commonly trained by minimising strictly proper sion calibration.

Decision makers rely on probabilistic forecasts to predict the loss of different decision rules before deployment.

Online Internet platforms require sophisticated marketing strategies to optimize user retention and platform revenue -- a classical resource allocation problem. Traditional solutions adopt a two-stage pipeline: machine learning (ML) for predicting individual treatment effects to marketing actions, followed by operations research (OR) optimization for decision-making. This paradigm presents two fundamental technical challenges. First, the prediction-decision misalignment: Conventional ML methods focus solely on prediction accuracy without considering downstream optimization objectives, leading to improved predictive metrics that fail to translate to better decisions. Second, the bias-variance dilemma: Observational data suffers from multiple biases (e.g., selection bias, position bias), while experimental data (e.g., randomized controlled trials), though unbiased, is typically scarce and costly -- resulting in high-variance estimates. We propose Bi-level Decision-Focused Causal Learning (Bi-DFCL) that systematically addresses these challenges. First, we develop an unbiased estimator of OR decision quality using experimental data, which guides ML model training through surrogate loss functions that bridge discrete optimization gradients. Second, we establish a bi-level optimization framework that jointly leverages observational and experimental data, solved via implicit differentiation. This novel formulation enables our unbiased OR estimator to correct learning directions from biased observational data, achieving optimal bias-variance tradeoff. Extensive evaluations on public benchmarks, industrial marketing datasets, and large-scale online A/B tests demonstrate the effectiveness of Bi-DFCL, showing statistically significant improvements over state-of-the-art. Currently, Bi-DFCL has been deployed at Meituan, one of the largest online food delivery platforms in the world.

Decision-making under uncertainty is often considered in two stages: predicting the unknown parameters, and then optimizing decisions based on predictions. While traditional prediction-focused learning (PFL) treats these two stages separately, decision-focused learning (DFL) trains the predictive model by directly optimizing the decision quality in an end-to-end manner. However, despite using exact or well-approximated gradients, vanilla DFL often suffers from unstable convergence due to its flat-and-sharp loss landscapes. In contrast, PFL yields more stable optimization, but overlooks the downstream decision quality. To address this, we propose a simple yet effective approach: perturbing the decision loss gradient using the prediction loss gradient to construct an update direction. Our method requires no additional training and can be integrated with any DFL solvers. Using the sigmoid-like decaying parameter, we let the prediction loss gradient guide the decision loss gradient to train a predictive model that optimizes decision quality. Also, we provide a theoretical convergence guarantee to Pareto stationary point under mild assumptions. Empirically, we demonstrate our method across three stochastic optimization problems, showing promising results compared to other baselines. We validate that our approach achieves lower regret with more stable training, even in situations where either PFL or DFL struggles.

Decision-focused learning (DFL) trains a machine learning (ML) model to predict parameters of an optimization problem, to directly minimize decision regret, i.e., maximize decision quality. Gradient-based DFL requires computing the derivative of the solution to the optimization problem with respect to the predicted parameters. However, for many optimization problems, such as linear programs (LPs), the gradient of the regret with respect to the predicted parameters is zero almost everywhere. Existing gradient-based DFL approaches for LPs try to circumvent this issue in one of two ways: (a) smoothing the LP into a differentiable optimization problem by adding a quadratic regularizer and then minimizing the regret directly or (b) minimizing surrogate losses that have informative (sub)gradients. In this paper, we show that the former approach still results in zero gradients, because even after smoothing the regret remains constant across large regions of the parameter space. To address this, we propose minimizing surrogate losses -- even when a differentiable optimization layer is used and regret can be minimized directly. Our experiments demonstrate that minimizing surrogate losses allows differentiable optimization layers to achieve regret comparable to or better than surrogate-loss based DFL methods. Further, we demonstrate that this also holds for DYS-Net, a recently proposed differentiable optimization technique for LPs, that computes approximate solutions and gradients through operations that can be performed using feedforward neural network layers. Because DYS-Net executes the forward and the backward pass very efficiently, by minimizing surrogate losses using DYS-Net, we are able to attain regret on par with the state-of-the-art while reducing training time by a significant margin.

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust.

In decision-making under uncertainty, Contextual Robust Optimization (CRO) provides reliability by minimizing the worst-case decision loss over a prediction set, hedging against label variability. While recent advances use conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for machine learning models, the downstream decisions critically depend on model selection. This paper introduces novel model selection frameworks for CRO that unify robustness control with decision risk minimization. We first propose Conformalized Robust Optimization with Model Selection (CROMS), which automatically selects models to approximately minimize the average decision risk in CRO solutions. We develop two algorithms: E-CROMS, which is computationally efficient, and F-CROMS, which enjoys a marginal robustness guarantee in finite samples. Further, we introduce Conformalized Robust Optimization with Individualized Model Selection (CROiMS), which performs individualized model selection by minimizing the conditional decision risk given the covariate of test data. This framework advances conformal prediction methodology by enabling covariate-aware model selection. Theoretically, CROiMS achieves asymptotic conditional robustness and decision efficiency under mild assumptions. Numerical results demonstrate significant improvements in decision efficiency and robustness across diverse synthetic and real-world applications, outperforming baseline approaches.